Preseason Rankings
North Dakota St.
Summit League
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#199
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.2#248
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#213
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#189
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 11.7% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 13.8 14.6
.500 or above 43.2% 67.2% 38.1%
.500 or above in Conference 56.5% 70.9% 53.4%
Conference Champion 8.0% 12.5% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.8% 4.1% 9.9%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.1%
First Round6.8% 11.1% 5.9%
Second Round0.7% 1.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 17.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.90.1 - 1.9
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.20.2 - 3.1
Quad 20.5 - 2.30.7 - 5.4
Quad 32.7 - 5.03.4 - 10.5
Quad 49.3 - 4.812.7 - 15.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 93   @ New Mexico St. L 65-72 18%    
  Nov 11, 2018 177   UC Santa Barbara L 69-70 56%    
  Nov 16, 2018 170   Miami (OH) L 66-68 44%    
  Nov 17, 2018 330   Incarnate Word W 76-67 80%    
  Nov 18, 2018 237   Towson W 69-67 58%    
  Nov 24, 2018 153   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-68 31%    
  Nov 26, 2018 5   @ Gonzaga L 63-83 2%    
  Dec 01, 2018 202   Drake W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 03, 2018 30   @ Iowa St. L 65-79 8%    
  Dec 08, 2018 174   Eastern Washington L 68-70 55%    
  Dec 15, 2018 190   Missouri St. L 67-68 57%    
  Dec 17, 2018 73   @ Montana L 66-75 15%    
  Dec 29, 2018 134   South Dakota L 69-74 45%    
  Dec 30, 2018 169   Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-77 54%    
  Jan 02, 2019 253   @ Nebraska Omaha W 75-72 50%    
  Jan 10, 2019 270   Western Illinois W 71-67 72%    
  Jan 16, 2019 200   @ Denver W 69-68 40%    
  Jan 19, 2019 271   North Dakota W 75-71 71%    
  Jan 24, 2019 79   @ South Dakota St. L 71-79 17%    
  Jan 26, 2019 283   @ Oral Roberts W 71-67 54%    
  Feb 02, 2019 270   @ Western Illinois W 71-67 52%    
  Feb 06, 2019 271   @ North Dakota W 75-71 53%    
  Feb 09, 2019 200   Denver W 69-68 60%    
  Feb 14, 2019 283   Oral Roberts W 71-67 73%    
  Feb 16, 2019 79   South Dakota St. L 71-79 32%    
  Feb 23, 2019 253   Nebraska Omaha W 75-72 69%    
  Feb 28, 2019 134   @ South Dakota L 69-74 27%    
  Mar 02, 2019 169   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-77 35%    
Projected Record 12.7 - 15.3 8.0 - 8.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.1 8.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.5 3.6 1.1 0.2 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.8 6.2 2.1 0.4 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.4 5.3 1.5 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.0 4.5 1.1 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.5 3.7 0.8 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.1 9th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.1 8.5 10.7 12.1 12.3 12.5 10.7 8.5 6.1 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
14-2 90.4% 1.7    1.3 0.4
13-3 67.8% 2.5    1.5 0.9 0.1
12-4 31.4% 1.9    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
11-5 10.9% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.0% 8.0 4.3 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 63.8% 62.1% 1.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3%
15-1 0.7% 49.6% 47.2% 2.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.5%
14-2 1.9% 42.2% 39.9% 2.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1 3.8%
13-3 3.7% 26.6% 26.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 0.0%
12-4 6.1% 19.6% 19.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 4.9 0.0%
11-5 8.5% 15.8% 15.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 7.2
10-6 10.7% 8.7% 8.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 9.8
9-7 12.5% 6.1% 6.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 11.7
8-8 12.3% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.8
7-9 12.1% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.1 0.3 11.8
6-10 10.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.6
5-11 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
4-12 6.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-13 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-14 1.8% 1.8
1-15 0.6% 0.6
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.4% 7.3% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.8 92.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%